The main surprise of yesterday results – it is a sharp tone change in sentiment in the US Federal Reserve monetary policy change in March. On February 28, we wrote that the percentage rates expectations of an increase of 35.4% to 64.6% of those who does not expect an increase (data taken from CME). Today, the mood changed dramatically, and this ratio was 66.4% at 33.6%.
Statistics on the US economy in the first day of spring was optimistic that supported the dollar rising, and is probably will continue to exert pressure on other currencies further. Until the FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for March 15. We can expect that dollar buyers will be more active than sellers. Unstable political background of the euro zone will support EURUSD reduction.
Intraday: All trades are below 1.0505 support level. The target for buyers is approximately 1.0500.
Sales are still relevant. Manufacturing activity slowed in February, Scotland referendum success is still under risk, BREXIT problem is still relevant.
Note that the last time a referendum on Scotland’s independence (18 September 2014), GBPUSD was falling. Two weeks before the referendum, correction made 400 points, which was the only correction up after the two-month drawdown of nearly 1000 points to the level of 1.6100. As a result, even though the negative voting – GBPUSD fall continued after the referendum.
Intraday: All trades are below 1.2325. Good opportunity for the bears to enter the market.