Daily market review 03 March

** Index of business activity in the services sector / Services PMI – February

** Composite Index PMI / PMI Composite – February
11:50 – France 11:55 – Germany 12:00 – Eurozone.
Further growth of these indicators is unlikely, but the lack of decline can be seen as a bullish signal for the euro since January, these figures have recorded high growth rates. While the unexpected decline in business activity could trigger a new wave of sales EUR / USD.

12:30 *** PMI index for the services sector / Services PMI – United Kingdom (February)
12:30 ** Composite Index PMI / PMI Composite – United Kingdom (February)
In January, these indicators registered a decline, so the lack of growth can be seen as a bearish signal for the sterling. Accordingly, even a slight decline is able to enhance the GBP / USD sellers activity, but an unexpected increase in PMI index is still able to provide short-term support for the sterling.

18:00 *** The composite ISM index for the non-productive sphere / ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – USA (February)
Economists do not expect a change in this index, respectively, a deviation from the previous value by more than 0.2 points may be accompanied by an increase in trading activity. The excess of the forecast by more than 0.2-0.3 points able to provide additional support for the dollar, because in this case, the composite index will fix the maximum rate of growth since October 2015. But the decline in the negative for the US dollar, especially given its strengthening yesterday.

18:15 ** FOMC members Charles Evans will give a speech / FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks – USA (March)
18:15 ** Geoffrey FOMC Member Lacker will give a speech / FOMC Member Jeffrey Lacker Speaks – USA (March)

** 20:15 FOMC Member Jerome Powell will deliver a speech / FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks – USA (March)

20:30 ** Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will deliver a speech / Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer Speaks – USA (March)

21:00 *** Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will deliver a speech / Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks – USA (March)
Comments by members of the FOMC, as well as chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors may be accompanied by the growth of the US dollar in trading activity, as their comments may shed light on the willingness of the regulator to raise the rate in the short term, particularly at the March meeting.

Already in the Asian session on March 3 received information regarding the reduction of the index of business activity in China’s services sector. The indicator went up to the level of 52.6 from 53.1 in the previous period. Given the fact that the services sector for the Chinese economy is more important than production, the lack of growth in the index above voiced support concerns about the recovery pace of global economic growth in the future. And at such times, when China’s negative statistics, the US dollar receives a portion of the next confidence of global investors.

In addition, it is worth noting the growing expectations of higher interest rates the US Fed in March of this year (according to the results of trades on March 2 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the percentage change of 22.5% / 77.5%. March 1 percent expected rate increase was 66 ,4%).
As a risk factor for the US currency can highlight the unpredictability of speech the US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, the performance of which is at an economic forum in Chicago is scheduled for today at 18:00 GMT. But this risk will only increase speculation and volatility per hour and an hour after the publication of the speech. So, the latest statistics on the US is quite optimistic and assumes no significant risks for the upcoming rhetoric Ms. Yellen.

In the euro area as a whole focus of the financial markets aimed at the political situation, rather than economic indicators. Because, in our opinion, there are more negative for the currency, and there is risk of further reduction in EURUSD.

Within days: our target sales level was 1.0500. The goal reached. In trading on Friday allowed to decrease to a level of 1.0450 in the breakdown of the mark 1.0500.
The goal was reached yesterday and started from the level of 114.50 timely correction downwards. For technical support levels, where we can expect decrease in pair, we are sure to put on hour / 4 hour chart USDJPY Fibonacci levels on the growth of the last couple of the low of February 28 and March 2 to the maximum. The first correction (23.6%) is at the level of 113.90, and the second (38.2%) at the level of 113.50.

Since the beginning of the month drawdown on the currency pair is 1%. The reasons we have discussed – the decline in business activity in the manufacturing sector, fears of a referendum in Scotland, the forthcoming breakup of Great Britain and the EU Brexit.
Within days, if the index of business activity in the services sector in February as “go south” can expect a decline to the support 1.2200.

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