10:00 ** Changes in the volume of orders in the industry / Factory Orders – Germany (January)
A sharp drop in this figure could put pressure on the euro. Economists do not exclude a decrease in the volume of orders in the industry by 2.5% m / m, which in their view may lead to a slowdown in the annual growth rate to 4.3% from the previous 8.1%. Confirmation of the forecast is negative for the euro.
11:30 ** HBOS / Halifax House Price Index – United Kingdom (February)
Return of this indicator to the positive area may provide short-term support to GBP, but only a significant excess of the forecast value can provoke a significant strengthening of the GBP. At the time of publication, the pound sterling trading activity may increase.
16:30 ** Trade Balance – Canada (January)
16:30 ** Trade Balance – USA (January)
Canada and the United States will report on the change in the balance of foreign trade. Let me remind you that in November and December 2016 Canada showed positive dynamics, therefore further growth of the surplus can be supported by CAD, provided there is no downward dynamics in the oil market. While the trade deficit for the US may continue to increase at a high rate, which is extremely negative for the US dollar. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that an increase in the trade balance deficit will allow the US president to tighten the terms of foreign economic relations, in particular trade conditions. All this is negative for the US dollar in the short term.
*** Change in the global price index for dairy products / Global Dairy Trade Price Index – New Zealand (March)
A further decrease in this indicator is negative for NZD. Let me remind you that in the last week of February this indicator decreased by 3.2%, also in January we saw negative values. Before that, only in October the index dropped to zero. Accordingly, only the growth of the indicator can keep NZD from the next weakening.
EUR / USD
With the euro, everything is mixed. Yesterday’s dynamics of the pair demonstrated the weakness of sellers. They are, but they are few. So, for any optimism on the eurozone statistics, or the lack of active purchases of the US dollar, we can see the growth of EURUSD during the trading day.
Technically, while the pair is trading above the level of 1.0580, it is worth considering short-term purchases with a target at the level of 1.0600-1.0620. In the event of a breakdown of the level of 1.0580, sales are relevant with a target at levels of 1.0560-1.0550.
USD / JPY
The pair broke from the mark of 115.00 and keeps the way to the level of 113.50. To date, given that interesting statistics will be published both from the US and from Japan, one can expect that growth to 114.20 is also possible.
An increase in the deficit of the US trade balance may lead to the level of 113.50, and in the Asian session, if Japan’s GDP growth slows down as opposed to growth expectations, the pair may return to the key resistance this week.
GBP / USD
From the news, the upcoming publication of data on the change in the UK housing price index from Halifax agency for February may push the pair down. Continuation of the February trend, weak indicators, will be the reason for the pair GBPUSD to decline to new lows this month. In particular, in terms of levels, we have not yet seen the mark of 1.2200.
Generally speaking, the essence of the decline in GBPUSD quotes is not only in the data on the real estate market. We keep the idea of a strong US dollar and a weak British currency due to Brexit. There is no driver for the growth of the pair yet.