15:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision – Eurozone (March)
16:30 *** ECB Press Conference – Eurozone (March)
Given that the change in the ECB’s basic interest rate is unlikely, all the attention of market participants will be focused on the ECB’s subsequent press conference. Therefore, the main reaction can take a place at the time of commenting on the decision rate.
16:30 *** Unemployment Claims – USA (March)
Indicator growth is negative for the USD. Let me remind you that economists expect an increase of initial number applications for unemployment benefits to 239 thousand, after a decline to 223 thousand one day before. But the value of 239 thousand will not indicate a clear deterioration in the market labor in USA, so only a noticeable forecast excess could negatively affect the dynamics of USD trading. At the same time, the value below 230 thousand can become a strong bullish signal for USD buyers .
EUR / USD
For February, the USD rose by 1.66%, and in March, for the first 6 trading days, it’s already + 1.06%. It is not wondering that today at the Asian session, buyers activity was stopped and the increase of USD index against the basket was only 0.1%. Despite the fact that according to ADP, the increase in the number of jobs in the private sector of the US has become a record since April 2014. We admit that until Friday the activity of USD buyers may stop in anticipation of non-businesses.
For today, directly for EUR, in addition to data on the USA labor market, an important decision will be on the ECB rate, which is scheduled for publication at 12:45 GMT, and at 13:30 a new wave of trading activity is expected due to ECB press conference. Financial regulator is interested in a weak currency.
Technically, we keep the focus at the support level of 1,0500. Breakdown downwards updates the fall into a lower price range. The closest resistance for today are the levels of 1,0558-1,0566.
USD / JPY
Yesterday’s sales did not open, and its good for us. On the background USD growth, Japan’s positive statistics did not suffice for the pair to continue decline. For today, it’s better to stay away, and concentrate on USD pairs. While the pair will be trading above the resistance level of 114.50 it’s too early for sales. We can expect growth 115.00 area, if the dollar continues to strengthen.
GBP / USD
Support for the growth of GBPUSD can be provided by draft budget of the the Ministry of Finance of Great Britain information. The main message is that the Bureau for Budget Responsibility improved its forecast for economic growth next year from 1.4% to 2%.
The head of the Ministry of Finance, Philip Hammond presented the draft budget for the fiscal year that begins 1st of April and said that “last year the British economy grew faster than in the US, Japan or France,” and among the developed countries.
Active buying can be interesting if the price will be fixed above 1,2168 level.