** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks – Eurozone (March)
Mario Draghi will participate in a meeting of finance ministers and heads of the Central Bank of the G20. I do not expect a significant impact, from its comments, on the overall dynamics of euro trading. Only unexpected speech can accompani an increase in trading activity.
15:30 Manufacturing Sales – Canada (January)
Further growth of this indicator may provide little support to the CAD, but it is necessary to monitor the dynamics of the movement of oil prices.
15:30 ** Capacity Utilization Rate – USA (February)
15:30 ** Industrial Production – USA (February)
In January, we observed a slight decrease in these indicators, so their growth is quite logical and as a result may provide short-term support to USD.
17:00 *** UoM Consumer Sentiment – USA (March)
The growth of this index is a rather important indicator of the health of the economy and, the confirmation or the excess of the forecast (growth is projected), may provide short-term support to USD.
EUR / USD
Already, the euro went to correction down after yesterday’s growth late in the evening. Provocator for buyers was a representative of the ECB, who stated about the invariability of the ECB estimates.
Of the most important data today, we are waiting for the US report on industrial production and the change in the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. Any negative will be gladly perceived by the markets as an opportunity to sell USD. This now can be called a profitable strategy, since in the near future, it will grow.
Positive dynamics on the surplus of the trade balance of the Eurozone will also return EURUSD after correction back to the top. Target for buyers are same from yesterday: 1,0800-1,0820.
USD / JPY
Again the JPY is in a uncertainty. Inraday, a side corridor 113,00 – 113,50. Bearish sentiment is not canceled, because in the priority of the sale at the rebound down from 113,50, or, conservative scenario, tbreakdown down to the level of 113.00 sale arders. The goal is kept at the level of 111.40.
GBP / USD
Yesterday we saw the first signs that the pound is struggling for its place under the sun and does not giving up. Despite the fact that all of it has already been disappointed and maintained a negative attitude due to Brexit, representatives of the Bank of England appeared who would be ready to raise the rate. Thus, the ratio of those who voted for and against the rate at the level of 0.25% was distributed in a ratio of 8 to 1. This is exactly what canceled our negative scenario after the March meeting on the rate.
Today, before the release of the quarterly bulletin of the Bank of England, there may be increased volatility of the pair. In addition, Europe has already started selling GBPUSD, so we do not exclude reaching the level of 1.2300. However, in the case of a return for the resistance of 1.2340, we completely admit the continuation of growth to the level of 1,2500.