The news background of the whole trading week is quite weak, but trading activity on the main financial instruments increased, against the background of general uncertainty about the dynamics of the US dollar.
17:00 ** Existing Home Sales – February (USA)
The dynamics of this indicator is very good, so the forecasted decline is hardly an obvious negative factor for the US dollar. At the same time, higher rates of decline, however, may weaken the US dollar in the short term.
17:30 *** Crude Oil Inventories – March (United States)
The projected growth of oil reserves by 1.9 million barrels could put additional pressure on oil prices. In the case of higher rates of this company, I do not exclude the development of a sufficiently impulsive decline in quotations of WTI, down to the level of 45.20. But on the way to this level of support are significant levels: 47.00 and 46.50.
23:00 *** Official Cash Rate – March (USA)
23:00 *** RBNZ Rate Statement – March (United States)
Further reduction of the rate is unlikely, so all attention will be focused on the accompanying statement RBNZ. At the time of the announcement of the voting results, I expect a spike in NZD / USD trading activity.
EUR / USD
We have indicated a good range of resistance, the “market” actively defends it. However, it is too early to build up short positions, from our point of view. The trend remains ascending. Short-term sales, for correction, are allowed. But, according to the rules of trade – the transaction on the trend is always more profitable. Therefore, when decreasing, it is worth considering the entry points to purchase. In the breakdown of the range of 1,0800-1,0820, the purchase targets are held at 1,1000-1,1070.
USD / JPY
The purpose of sales (the nearest) was worked out. Technically, we are waiting for correction upwards, however, in case of breakdown down to the level of 111.40, the sales targets are at the level of 110.00.
In addition to the weak US dollar, vendors will be supported by the latest statistics from Japan (which we were waiting for in the Asian session), the surplus of the trade balance for February rose against the deficit in the previous period.
GBP / USD
The rebound from the level of 1,2500 should not be regarded as a signal to unambiguous sales. Accurate. At least within a day there is a target at 1.2524. Medium-term for the time being, the purpose of buying a GBPUSD currency pair in the range of 1.2700-1.3000.