Daily market review 28 March

09:00 and 11:45 ** ECB’s Benoît Coeure Speaks – March (Eurozone)
14:00 *** CB Consumer Confidence – March (USA)
The projected decline of this indicator to 113.9 points is unlikely to put significant pressure on the US dollar, but weaker data in the report is still capable of provoking another wave of sales of the American currency. While unexpectedly high values ​​will stimulate further strengthening of the US dollar in the short term.
14:05 *** BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks – March (United States)
He will give a speech at Durham College. After 15 minutes, his speech will be published, and in 65 minutes a press conference will be held.
16:50 *** Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks – March (USA)
Speak on the topic “Resolving the problems of the development of labor resources in low-income communities”, at the annual conference. Discussion of the situation on the labor market can be accompanied by an increase in trade activity by the US dollar.
The health bill proposed by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, was rejected yesterday, which provoked, at first, a wave of sales in dollars, and then regained his strength. So, after the first reaction, the participants of financial markets decided to again believe in a reliable dollar. The speculative effect was short-lived.
Also note that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, said on Monday that the Fed this year could raise interest rates four times. In addition, the economy continues to demonstrate progress in terms of the objectives of the Fed, providing for maximum growth and sustainable inflation. This rhetoric can also be kept in focus as optimistic for the US currency, but it is more likely that today for markets the story will continue around statements about “trust in Trump” and political uncertainty. Therefore, we do not rule out that in the American session this may result in an additional jump down the US dollar index.

A clearer picture today did not. Therefore, the fixed result for USDJPY sales is still to be kept and not put at risk.
Conservative scenario – sales after the breakdown of the level of 1.0990, or after rising up in the range of 1.1170 reversal and only there the sales are updated.

With the rebound down from the level of 1.2600, the correction was only 60 points, which is still too early to be called an unambiguous point of resumption of growth. Fundamentally, buyers were upset by the statement that the risk assessment from the Finance Policy Committee has changed somewhat, and political uncertainty is high among the developed economies. Also from the Bank of England yesterday it was said that the complication of business structures after Brexit could reduce the stability of the financial system of Great Britain.
When the quotes are lowered, the support is 1.2506. With the resumption of growth, the purpose of purchases will be the range of 1.2700-1.2760.

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