daily market review 31 march

10:55 ** Unemployment Change – March (Germany)

10:55 ** Unemployment Rate – March (Germany)

Despite the fact that economists do not expect a significant improvement in the labor market Germany situation, the general expectations are quite optimistic. Therefore, at the time of the release, we can observe a slight strengthening of the euro (in case of the forecast confirmation ).

11:30 *** Current Account – IV quarter (United Kingdom)

11:30 *** Gross Domestic Product – IV quarter (Great Britain)

According to experts, the deficit of the British trade balance can significantly decrease in the fourth quarter of 2016. Confirmation of the forecast is favorable for sterling, but it is possible in case of strengthening only on condition of revision of the preliminary data on GDP for the last quarter of the last year.

12:00 *** Consumer Price Index – March (Eurozone)

12:00 *** Consumer Price Index – Core – March (Eurozone)

Despite the fact that this is a preliminary estimate for inflation in the euro area, its projected decline is negative for the euro. Confirmation of the forecast or weaker data in the report can put additional pressure on the euro.

15:30 ** Gross Domestic Product – January (Canada)

Since this indicator is published with a large delay, its importance is reduced. As a consequence, only a significant deviation from the previous and forecasted values ​​may be accompanied by an increase in trading activity by the Canadian dollar. But let me remind you again that the Canadian dollar is more reactive to the change in the cost of oil.

15:30 ** Core CPE Price Index – February (USA)

15:30 ** Personal Spending – February (USA)

Only an unexpected drop in these figures could put pressure on USD. Economists do not expect a significant deviation from the previous values, which is generally moderately positive for the USD, so even a slight improvement in performance may provide short-term support to USD.

15:30 ** Chicago PMI – March (United States)

17:00 ** UoM Consumer Sentiment – March (United States)

These indicators are kept at a sufficiently high level, so their further growth can be supported by the USD at the time of the release.

17:00 ** FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speaks – March (United States)


Since the beginning of the trading day, the activity of USD buyers has not been seen, which may be the reason for a correction hope of the EURUSD pair up. The optimism of all FOMC representatives regarding the number of rate increases this year looks too intrusive. Especially, in conditions of political instability. We would not now focus on the indicators of the EU economy, but would set USD as a priority. The resistance is the level of 1.0700. If there is a breakdown, then growth is possible to around 1.0745. Support range is 1.0660-1.0640.

The single-digit fall of EURUSD is not yet waiting.


The expected retreat from the range of 111.70-111.90 occurs near the level of 112.00. However, before counting on the resumption of sales – let’s get a reversal candle configuration at least on 4 hour charts.

If Intraday the pair resumes growth above 112.00, then the target for buyers will be the level of 112.80.


Yesterday’s work on 144 EMA on 15-minute charts gave a profit on a long position with reaching levels of 1.2490-1.2500. However, today it is difficult to imagine the reason for the optimism GBP buyers. Therefore, in general, we consider, as a priority direction, sales of GBPUSD. Support is at the level of 1.2360. At the time when the publication of GDP growth rates in the UK for the second quarter, if the indicators are optimistic, there may be a surge in quotes up. But we do not expect much optimism.

Although, technically, we can also evaluate the trading outlook with a look at 144 EMA. The tactics are as follows: breaking up 144 EMA is allowed to open purchases within a day with the aim of local maxima (1.2496 and 1.2525). We trade below 144 EMA, so actual sales with the target at levels of 1.2410 – 1.2380 – 1.2360.

At the same time, we do not exept that in the event of a change in the mood in the world for USD, the GBPUSD pair will be able to go above 1.2700 in April.

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