Daily market review 3 April

10:50 ** Manufacturing PMI – March (France)

10:55 ** Manufacturing PMI – March (Germany)

11:00 ** Manufacturing PMI – March (Eurozone)

Today will be published the final evaluation of business activity index in the manufacturing sector of France, Germany and the Eurozone. Traditionally, economists do not expect changes, but further growth of these indicators can provide the necessary support for the Euro.

11:30 *** Manufacturing PMI – March (United Kingdom)

The growth of this indicator can provide short-term support to GBP at the time of publication. Exceeding the forecast is positive for GBP.

17:00 *** ISM Manufacturing PMI – March (USA)

Over the past six months, this indicator shows an upward trend. Therefore, a slight slowdown in growth rates is quite logical and as a consequence can be perceived by the market as a moderately positive signal for the USD. Economists expect the decline to 57.2 points, respectively, only the actual value below the forecast could put pressure on the dollar.

17:30 ** FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks – April (USA)

22:00 ** FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks – April (USA)

Speaks at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.


The first day of the month was for the weekend, therefore the most important and volatile news that will make volatility in the form of indicators of business activity of the manufacturing sector in all countries will be known only today.

According to the US, the dynamics of PMI remains downward from January, which, if the trend continues, will drop the USD in the second half of the day. Eurozone, on the contrary, as a whole (and not for individual countries) demonstrates the upward movement since September 2016.

Intraday we recommend to pay attention for Germany PMI and the Eurozone. Technically, the resistance is, like last Friday, the level of 1,0700 more than 1,0737. Support, in case of a breakdown down 1.0660, will shift to the level of 1.0617.


For confident sales, USD/JPY need to go down the range of 111.75 – 109.90. Today, given the already weak index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Japan, as well as the bank holiday in China, we assume that USDJPY trades will be in the range of 110.45-112.30. We do not expect much activity in the afternoon.


The resistance level of 1.2550 surely holds back further growth technically, but whether the pair can fundamentally go up will depend on the actual PMI statistics. The last two days of the week, we worked qualitatively inside the day for 144 EMA. Today, we look forward to continuing growth to the levels of 1.2600-1.2650. If sellers will be active, then the first target at the reduction will be just 144 EMA.

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