8:30 ** Construction PMI – March (UK)
Economists do not expect an increase in this indicator. Exceeding the forecasted and previous values can support the pound sterling. But weaker values in the report will further weaken sterling.
9:15 *** RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speaks – March (Australia)
12:30 ** Trade Balance – February (Canada)
12:30 ** Trade Balance – February (USA)
Improvement of these indicators is favorable for currencies, but the market reaction to these reports is moderate, except for significant deviations from previous or forecasted values. Therefore, the unexpected appearance of a deficit in Canada’s trade balance can put pressure on the Canadian dollar. While a reduction in the deficit in the US can provide additional support for the US dollar.
13:30 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks – April (Eurozone)
14:00 ** Factory Orders – February (USA)
Further growth of these indicators may provide additional support to the US dollar, but unexpectedly weak data will help weaken the US currency.
EUR / USD
March indicators on business activity in the manufacturing sector in the euro area and its largest countries have shown moderate stability. (PMI of the Eurozone remained at the level of 56.2, Germany 58.3, Italy 55.7 against 55.0 in March). At the same time, the indicators only restrained the further fall of the EURUSD pair, because the focus is on elections in France, which will continue to act as a factor of instability for the European currency.
Technically, we will keep the benchmarks from yesterday, as the volatility of Monday did not allow us to realize any of the scenarios. The resistance is the level of 1,0700 more than 1,0737. Support, in case of a breakdown down 1.0660, will shift to the level of 1.0617.
USD / JPY
While China rests no news background, except the US, it will not provoke a strong volatility in USDJPY (today in China the second day of the Holiday of pure light). To the level of support of 109.90 sales are still not unambiguous (you can not leave short positions for a medium term), although the general trend remains descending.
We keep the idea: for confident sales by the pair, you need to go down the range of 111.75 – 109.90.
GBP / USD
Support for 1.2430 could be a good start to the resumption of GBPUSD growth. Technically, the quotes approached the third ray of the Fibo fan from upward movement from March 14 to March 23.
AUD / USD
The medium-term idea is realized: sales are worked out and the stop can be transferred already for the level of 0.7690. We would not recommend buying a pair of AUDUSD.
Today, at the Asian session, the RBA left the rate unchanged (which was expected, as the financial controller, as always, “complains” about the country’s strong currency), but the statistical indicators have recently shown a deterioration that will support the activity of sellers, despite the growth in the value of gold . Dependence of quotations of the Australian dollar from precious metal “does not work” from the second half of 2016.
The downside was formed from the resistance level of 0.7700. On the weekly chart, the reversal candlestick configuration “Harami” with confirmation is clearly visible. The stochastic oscillator (14-3-5) is in the overbought zone, which gives us reason to expect a downward movement. On the daily chart, AUDUSD entered the Ichimoku cloud. There is no clear trend. The stochastic oscillator has left the overbought zone. First, the goal of short positions can now be set at 0.7544, then 0.7467 and 0.7380.
Since December 2015, the trend for the AUDUSD pair remains ascending.