Daily market review 05 april

 

 

10:50 ** Services PMI – March (France)

10:50 ** PMI Composite – March (France)

10:55 ** Services PMI – March (Germany)

10:55 ** PMI Composite – March (Germany)

11:00 ** Services PMI – March (Germany)

11:00 ** PMI Composite – March (Germany)

Traditionally, economists do not expect changes in these indicators, but given the growth rates in previous months, I do not exclude a slight indicators decrease. Accordingly, the absence of a decline in growth rates, or a very slight decrease compared to the last values, may provide additional support for the euro. But a sharp collapse of the above-mentioned indices, especially for Germany and for the Eurozone, can speculative interest weak in the euro (short-term).

11:30 *** Services PMI – March (United Kingdom)

11:30 ** PMI Composite – March (UK)

The economy of Britain can not boast of high rates of growth of these indicators, but the unexpected improvement in the situation in Britain can provide short-term support to GBP. However, further decline in performance is still negative for GBP and as a result may be accompanied by more active sales of GBP / USD.

15:15 *** ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – March (United States)

In January and February, we observed very high rates of growth in the number of employed, according to ADP (ADP Non-Farm). After sustained growth the day before, economists do not rule out a decline in this indicator in March, which could put pressure on USD (short-term). In this case, unexpectedly high values in the report can be accompanied by an impulsive strengthening of USD.

15:30 *** Bank of England CIP member Gertjan Vlige will deliver a speech / MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe Speaks – March (Great Britain)

16:45 ** Services PMI – March (United States)

16:45 ** PMI Composite – March (United States)

This is the final assessment. Preliminary assessment can support USD. But unexpectedly weak values are negative for the US currency.

17:00 *** ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – March (USA)

In February, this indicator reached a maximum value of the last two years, so its decline to 57.0 points, which is still higher than the previous value, is unlikely to significantly exert pressure on USD. But unexpectedly high rates of decline are still able to weaken investor interest in the US dollar.

17:30 *** Crude Oil Inventories – March (USA)

Confirmation or excess of the projected rate of decline in oil reserves of USA can provide substantial support to oil quotes. At the time of publication, I expect a surge in trading activity in the oil market.

17:30 *** Publication of Minutes of the FOMC Meeting Minutes – March (USA)

EUR / USD

Today, data on employment in the US from the ADP agency are planned for publication, which will shape the USD markets mood. Last month, the increase was the largest since March 2006, and if this time the actual figures do not justify the trend and the growth will be less than 298 thousand, then USD can settle down. Therefore, a decrease in EURUSD may still be a good point for entry to a correction up today.

In case of long positions and waiting for the correction of the pair up to the levels of 1.0700-1.078 (correction Fibo levels), the stop should be placed in the range of 1.0640-1.066.

USD / JPY

If the US dollar pays, then the pair can confidently break through the support of 109.90. Therefore in the coming days, we will not be guided by strong daylight shadows on candles, which reflects the activity of buyers in the afternoon.

The basis for the downward dynamics of USDJPY is the relevance of data from the US labor market in relation to the future of monetary policy.

GBP / USD

Another decline to support 1,2430 again can be tried as a start for purchases. The pair has growth potential, despite the negative news background. So, the latest data on the change in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector could well have been already taken into account in the decline for Monday-Tuesday.

AUD / USD

The general trend remains unchanged – Sale. Inside the day, upward spikes are possible provided that USD will strengthen against the basket of currencies. Resistance levels are 0.7586 and 0.7602.

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