Daily market review 06 April

12:40 ECB’s Jens Weidmann Speaks – April (Eurozone) Theme “Problems of the banking sector”. Given the rather complicated situation in the banking sector of the Eurozone, its comments may be accompanied by increased trading activity of the euro.

14:30 ** ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – March (Eurozone) Moderate degree of importance, as it is published 4 weeks after the ECB meeting on monetary policy.

15:30 *** Unemployment Claims – April (USA) The value of this indicator above 250 thousand is negative for the economy, as a consequence only higher rates of decline, in comparison with the forecast (251 thousand), can support the US dollar. Unexpectedly high rates in the report are extremely negative for the US currency.

19:40 ECB’s Peter Praet Speaks – April (Eurozone)

20:15 * Vice President of the ECB Vitor Constancio Speaks – April (Eurozone) EUR / USD Yesterday, the pressure on the US dollar could only be provided by the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve at the rate, but it did not have a significant change in the basic idea for a basket of currencies against the dollar. Although, it could be the reaction of the American market, which does not guarantee a similar reaction to the European session today. For the euro currency, except for yesterday’s minutes of the meeting, the US Federal Reserve will be an important protocol of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will also significantly increase the volatility of trading. Technically, for the time being, it is clearly visible how the market “protects” the level of 1.0650, which can be taken into account in its trade today. While the pair is trading above this mark – sales may be limited to support, but purchases should be increased only if there is a breakdown of the levels of 1.0685-1.0690, since the last days there is also some protection, only from buyers.

The technical picture is ambiguous and trade decisions are yet to be taken. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation with the support level of 1,0990. If the breakdown takes place, then we update the short positions. In terms of – we assume that it can happen tomorrow, at the time of publication of data on the US labor market.

The technical level of 1.2430 stood up and now, as long as the trades pass above this level – we keep the probability of continuing growth in the range of 1.2580-1.2600. Although, a certain resistance level is 1,2500. Fundamentally, given the fears for the stability of the US labor market, after a publication of the ADP on Wednesday, we do not rule out a breakdown of up to 1.2500.

The Australian dollar is confidently fulfilling the trading situation. Despite the moderation of the sellers for yesterday, the Asian session today compensated for this stability. Technical goals are kept down – actual sales.
Note that initially, the goal of short positions was the level of 0.7544. To him quotes went down. Now the target of sales are the levels of 0.7467 and 0.7380.

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