Daily market review 13 April

12:30 *** Producer Price Index – March (USA)
According to economists, the rate of inflation in the US will slow (m / m), but the annual rate will continue to grow. Confirmation of the forecast, it is difficult to call negative for the US dollar, as it implies the growth of inflation in annual terms. Therefore, only weaker data in the report may put additional pressure on the US dollar.
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims – April (USA)
The forecasted growth to 242 thousand can be considered a moderately positive signal for the US dollar. But the excess of the forecast is negative for the US currency.
14:00 *** UoM Consumer Sentiment – April (USA)
According to average forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, this indicator will continue to grow, which may provide short-term support to the US dollar, especially given its weakening the day before.
14:30 *** BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks – April (Canada)
Witness before the standing committee of the Senate on banking, trade, and commerce. High importance.
For the US dollar, a new “blow” is the surplus of China’s trade surplus for March. The technical picture that we were waiting for yesterday in the US currency – worked out. Today, provided that the statistics on China continue to put pressure on American buyers – the fall may continue. Although, on the other hand, the dollar needs to undergo a psychological barrier of 100.00.
Currency pair EURUSD met resistance 1.0670, which may become critical for the current day to continue growing. Accordingly, when rebounding from this level, within the day sales are updated.

The trading idea is worked out. After the breakdown of the level of 109.90 quotes “came” to 200 SMA, which can also suspend the activity of sellers. To resume active growth of short positions, two scenarios can be considered:
1) The return of quotations to 109.90, the formation of an intraday reversal and the resumption of sales.
2) Breakdown 200 SMA, fixing the day candle below this dynamic level. And then the resumption of sales with a target at the level of 105.50.

Yesterday the pair reached our goal – the resistance level of 1.2550 (we set targets at levels of 1.2550-1.2600). Today, with the resumption of the fall of the dollar, you can see 1,2600. With a decline in the pair, it will tend, at least, to support 1.2525.

There was a confident correction up, the terms of which we discussed yesterday. And, so far, to resume sales early. From a fundamental point of view, the active growth of the dollar is more likely already tomorrow, on Friday. The risk of such a scenario (the growth of the US dollar) is the fact that on Friday many countries, and the US in number, will be on the weekend on Good Friday.

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